Cape Town Water Crisis: Was Poor Management to Blame? (Part 2)

Last week’s blog on the Cape Town Water Crisis made it clear that historical observations and climate models suggest that climate change was to blame. However, after listening to a Nature podcast (Figure 1 below), I want to take a different perspective on the crisis. Although municipal authorities blamed climate change for the water shortage, the podcast suggests that the city authority’s poor management contributed more to the crisis. Climate change or not, had warnings been observed, the crisis would have been avoided. So, in this blog, I explore how poor management and people contributed to the crisis. I believe that ‘Day-Zeros’ are not inevitable and to avoid them cities must move from scrambling crisis responses to effective long-term management of water resources.

Figure 1. Nature Podcast from 11^th July 2018. Mike Muller explores why we can’t blame climate change for the Cape Town crisis. Source:(Nature Podcast). 

Poor Management 

 

Blaming climate change for the crisis means politicians are often left unaccountable. Actually, many of the problems were in large part because city authorities ignored warnings from hydrological models (Muller, 2018). Before 2009, South Africa successfully used hydrological models to guide their management of water resources, in fact, these models were considered world-class. The models used historical observations to project stream flows and crucially allowed planners to assess the risk of supply failures and guide long-term policy at state level (UNESCO, 2020). Prior to the crisis, the models indicated that meteorological changes were expected to cause reduced streamflow. As such, Mukheibir (2007) and a Cape Water Supply System: Reconciliation Study recommended that the water resource infrastructure be expanded, as the six reservoirs that feed the city held less than two-years supply: 890 million cubic metres, compared with a reliable annual yield of 570 million cubic metres. However, these recommendations were ignored, and the drought exposed the short-sighted management of Cape Town’s water resources. Consequently, authorities resulted to scrambling responses – having missed the chance to develop an effective long-term water management plan. 

People and Population 

Against the backdrop of poor planning, population growth and unsustainable water use played an important role. Simpkins (2018) suggests that unsustainable water use from population growth increased water demand beyond the dam carrying capacity and contributed heavily to the crisis. First, the city’s population increased dramatically between 1995 and 2015, almost doubling, from 2.4 million to 4.3 million. This coupled, with the failure to improve water infrastructure, amplified water deficits. Furthermore, the city’s policies to attract big-money investments have resulted in unsustainable developments, which critics argue that utilises much more water than required. Had water resources been used sustainably prior to the crisis, Mekonnen and Hoesktra (2016) report that it could have been averted.

Learning Lessons for other Cities

It almost seems unbelievable that Cape Town, a city with world-class modelling systems, ignored red flags to boost water supplies. Clearly, climate change wasn’t solely to blame. Poor management, population increases, and unsustainable water use contributed as well. So, the important question now is what lessons can be learnt from the Cape Town crisis. With further climate variability predicted and several climate assessments suggesting that southern Africa will experience less rainfall how can we build climate resilience?

Effective Hydrological Modelling 

With effective monitoring and modelling, water managers can predict supply failure, then estimate how long a dry period will last and employ effective water management to see them through the dry period. However, the Cape Town crisis highlighted several challenges. First, that there was clearly resistance in integrating scientific research in policy. Moving forward, scientists and politicians must work collectively - integrating science and policy. Furthermore, Hughes (2006) found that in southern Africa, flow data available for assessments of model performance are sparse and not reliable. This coupled with an increasingly erratic climate means more resources will need to be devoted to monitoring and modelling to reduce uncertainty in projections.

Changing Human Behaviour 

Moving forward, water needs to be used sustainability and the changes made to daily practices during the drought must be continued. Hoesktra suggests that “reducing municipal water demand, not only by households but by all urban water users, is the primary measure needed to ensure future water security”. The Cape Town drought provides a stark example that we must act proactively, rather than when water shortages are already underway.